Estimation Method of Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Motorcycle applicable from Individual Unit to Sales Volume

To achieve carbon neutrality, manufacturers need to estimate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions generated throughout the life cycle of motorcycles, namely the Carbon Footprint of Product (CFP). We developed a method that allows calculation of the per-unit CFP and the total CFP of sales volume of motorcycles with a common formula, and also enables the estimation of their future values. First, we made it possible to calculate the per-unit CFP of each individual model by setting factors that we quantified the characteristics of motorcycles such as material composition and replacement parts and incorporating them into the calculation formula. Next, we enabled the calculation of the total CFP of sales volume from the present to the future by standardizing the specs of individual models and calculating the CFP by product category and multiplying the sales volume. Furthermore, we made it possible to simulate future CFP according to scenarios of expansion of environmental protection actions such as the decarbonization of electricity by designating the factors that can change annually and entering any values. Using our method, we simulated the CFP under multiple scenarios. The results of the total CFP of sales volume showed the annual transition of the CFP and the impacts of each environmental protection actions. The results of the per-unit CFP showed that its volume and composition ratio of life cycle stages differ depending on the product, region, and powertrain. With this method established, it is expected that product and technology strategies for more effective CFP reduction can be developed more efficiently.