Fleet-Level Energy and Emissions Analysis of the US Off-Road Sector with VISION: Off-Road

2025-01-8594

04/01/2025

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Event
WCX SAE World Congress Experience
Authors Abstract
Content
In the United States (US), the off-road sector (i.e., agriculture, construction, etc.) contributes to approximately 10% of the country’s transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, similar to the aviation sector. The off-road sector is extremely diverse; as the EPA MOVES model classifies it into 11 sub-sectors, which include 85 different types of equipment. These equipment types have horsepower ranging from 1 to greater than 3000 and have very different utilization, which makes decarbonization a complex endeavor. To address this, Argonne’s on-road vehicle fleet model, VISION, has been expanded to the off-road sector. The GHG emission factors for several energy carriers (biofuels, electricity, and hydrogen) have been incorporated from Argonne’s GREET model for a sector-wide well-to-wheel (WTW) GHG emissions analysis of the present and future fleet. Several technology adoption and energy decarbonization scenarios were modeled to better understand the appropriate actions required to drive towards net-zero emissions of the off-road sector. Results show that WTW decarbonization up to 67% can be achieved from 2023 to 2050 in a business-as-usual scenario. But with aggressive sales increases of electric and hydrogen powertrains, WTW decarbonization up to 77% can be achieved, which can further increase to 85% if electricity production is aggressively decarbonized by 2035.
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DOI
https://doi.org/10.4271/2025-01-8594
Pages
19
Citation
Tripathi, S., Kolodziej, C., Gohlke, D., Burnham, A. et al., "Fleet-Level Energy and Emissions Analysis of the US Off-Road Sector with VISION: Off-Road," SAE Technical Paper 2025-01-8594, 2025, https://doi.org/10.4271/2025-01-8594.
Additional Details
Publisher
Published
Apr 01
Product Code
2025-01-8594
Content Type
Technical Paper
Language
English